Should We Run and Hide now That Kagame is President?

By Eleneus Akanga

There are those who believe the presidential election in Rwanda was nothing else but an illegitimate consecration of President Paul Kagame. There even are some who did refer to the election as a “selection with no choice given” and have refused to accept it as valid.

So are those who feel that the reported massive turn out on election day and the subsquent total number of votes cast in favour of Kagame, is testament that Rwandans still love the former rebel leader.

Whatever the belief, there is one fact that stands out. Kagame is now Rwanda’s president and will at least legally or illegally remain so till 2017. It is a fact that the two sets of protagonists have got to contend with. How and whether they should, is a different matter, alltogether.

If there is anything Africa’s strongmen have managed to effectively do,hang on to power is that thing. From Uganda to Libya, Chad, Sudan and Egypt, Africa has had it’s fair share of authoritarians or longest serving presidents if you may. Trouble is, as in the case of Kagame, those in question have laid claim to the fact they were democratically voted back into power. Even where it has neccessitated tampering or ammending the constituions for them to get to the ballot paper, the result in those cases has passed as legitimate because such is democracy as understood in authoritarian countries.

Kagame has said previously that this should and will be his last term as head of state and for purposes of objectivity, he probably deserves the benefit of the doubt.

Writing in the FT last week (August 19) he maintained that “competitive democracy requires sustained social cohesion”. His argument was pitched on the very note his leadership has defended its vice-like grip on political pruralism for years – the one that 16 years they have had is too short a time for competitive politics.

“Many also fail to understand that it was precisely a system of pluralistic politics that played a major role in the genocide, as newly formed parties with shared extremist ideology outperformed the former one-party state in mobilising the population to commit mass murder,” he argued.

To Kagame, pruralistic politics breed divisionism and chaos and should thus,be avoided. While he may be true, his assertion brings into fore a few observations. One, that for 16 years Kagame has failed, despite his economic prowess, to promote genuine unity among Rwandans and fears the message of forgiveness and reconciliation is yet to be accepted after all these years. Two, that he now looks increasingly even more authoritarian compared to his predecessor as far as political space is concerned. And three, which probably is more worrying, that his country’s much touted and publicized peaceful co-existence between victims and perpetrators, is just a bubble waiting to explode.

While it is important to work toward ensuring that what happened in 1994 does not happen ever again, success on this matter wont come from the duration granted for wounds to heal but a genuine and well thought arrangement where both sides take to an open and clear debate about what actually happened.

Some people will argue that Kagame has done his best and continues to, and therefore with enough time, will deliver. Well to this group of thinkers, I say hold it. Everyone knows that Kagame has consistently avoided such politics as the politics of open debate. His crackdown on independent media, his continued fall out with those who oppose and question his repressive style of leadership notwithstanding, his government’s decision this year not to register the only credible opposition parties and the incarceration of Victoire Ingabire – the only politician to ever call for an open debate about the country’s history, went to show just how unprepared Kagame is for this sort of debate. The question then becomes not one of can he, but rather that of for how long.

The Rwandan story under Kagame is destined to that sad fact where even after 100 years, the same wounds that have taken 16 years to heal might still be very raw and well visible, if the current policy is maintained. And that to me would not be progress. It is what happens when you know the truth but instead choose the slightly easier option because the truth hurts or you feel the time is not ripe. Some scholars have even suggested that Rwanda’s issues would quite easily be sorted by embracing the model taken by South Africa after apartheid – a notion that Kagame appears to be totally opposed to probably because it dictates that the two sides get to open up and confess to their atrocities. And when one side has been pleading complete innocence for 16 years, you get the idea of why such a move can only succeed without the incumbent.

And it is worse. You have to feel for the real opposition in Rwanda when an under pressure president after getting the hint that the world has began to understand how he really conducts his business and will soon be demanding real answers to the pertinent questions, suddenly speaks about forming some sort of coalition government. (I will write in detail about this in my next piece).

Kagame is a very tactical guy. In his heart, he knows the truth. He knows forinstance that his style of leadership is one he would have struggled to stomach himself had he been in the opposition’s shoes. He knows that his government has made and continues to make it extremely tough for free speech to succeed in Rwanda. He knows that what he refers to as his opposition is not but just a group of strategists and RPF sympathisers who for the sake of keeping their jobs have agreed to play opposition when in actual sense, they are subsets of the ruling political party. But he does not give a damn like he said before. To calm the nerves of the international community, he will open up or pretend to be opening up for power sharing but only share with his own. Notice too, that Rwanda has theoretically embraced some sort of a coalition government ever since the country formed the Forum for Political Parties in 2002. So why make a fuss about it now? Because it diverts the attention.

To those unaware of his true character, such a move will be seen as a clear indication that he is an inclusive president intent on sharing power. Share power? Remember this is a gentleman who in the early 90s refused a power sharing agreement with then president and instead went ahead with war. But this cannot be used against him really as people do change – may be he has changed! It however remains to be seen if Kagame can really be trusted, which raises the question, is he really going to step down come 2017?

As for those who do not subscribe to his principles and style of leadership, the times are getting harder. Just yesterday, I read that Lt. Col Rugigana Ngabo, has been arrested on charges of “destabilisation”. Despite the Rwandan army confirming the arrest, Col Ngabo’s wife seems to have no idea as to the whereabouts of her husband or where he is being detained. And when you consider that the colonel is brother to exiled former army chief of staff Lt. Gen. Kayumba Nyamwasa, you get the picture of what Gen Nyamwasa said in his first interview to Voice of America about Rwandan officials living in fear, so much that comrades and friends alike are no longer associating with one another for fear of being labelled “the bad guys”. Now that Kagame is president again, when he surely should have been sitting home looking after his cattle and reading books about his role in the Rwandan history, should we run and hide?

…over to you my little monsters.

Erlinder’s Arrest: A Blessing or Curse

Kigali will argue they have finally got their man but the arrest of Prof Peter Erlinder on Friday in Kigali has every potential to go down as a defining moment in the history of this tiny country, who many now know, enjoys tussling it out with the mightiest.

The American Professor of Law at William Mitchel College of Law in St Paul, Minnesota, a successful criminal lawyer and lead counsel at the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda (ICTR) is now, as Kigali will want the world to know, in their hands – ready to face the long arm of the law for denying genocide – at least for now. Don’t be surprised if when the charge sheet is presented, it contains associating with terrorists and promoting divisionism. The three, according to prosecutors in Kigali, MUST go together; otherwise the case wouldn’t be TRULLY RWANDAN.

Having arrived in Rwanda on Sunday, May 23, to defend incarcerated opposition politician Victoire Umuhoza Ingabire – another member of the public whose charge sheet includes the three named charges, Erlinder who a Rwandan prosecution source described as ‘a big fish given his association with known genocidaires’ now has to get himself a lawyer and consider his defence for Ingabire impossible.

Already, the American Embassy has made it clear it won’t be commenting further on the case apart from confirming that Prof Erlinder has been arrested.

But what exactly are the politics here?

Before i go any further, it is perhaps imperative that we get to understand who Prof Erlinder is and how he fits into this amazing Rwandan cobweb. Erlinder is not only famous for being a successful and intelligent criminal lawyer, he was lead counsel in the famous Military I trial in Arusha where it was argued and established that there was “no planning or conspiracy on the part of the former government to commit the genocide”.

Earlier this month, Prof Erlinder was again among a group of attorneys who sought to serve President Paul Kagame for wrongful death in a $350 million dollar suit filed in Oklahoma. As a long time critic of the regime in Kigali, Prof Erlinder was always in Kagame’s black book and it was not a surprise when his name appeared alongside those of people considered evil and worth eliminating by the Rwandan regime as leaked on the internet by Keith Harmon Snow.

Even with the US declaring itself yesterday and choosing to lay-bear the fears inside Rwanda in a scathing report published on the internet Thursday May 27, Kigali today decided enough was enough and moved in on the Professor.

Why is the question?

From the day Victoire Ingabire was arrested, Erlinder made it clear he was prepared to be part of her defence team. His interest was publicised and Rwanda knew then, that Erlinder was on his way. Sources within Rwanda’s prosecution have told me that fearing Erlinder’s interest in the case and his expression of willingness to defend Ingabire, the government started circulating stories in the local and regional press aimed at scaring away the America. Newspaper reports hinted at the possibility of an immediate arrest on arrival for previously denying the genocide ever took place.

But the more Erlinder was threatened, the more he made certain his desire to travel and represent Ingabire. And since much of the evidence in the case against Ingabire is circumstantial and some of it from coerced testimonies, Rwanda feared a smart counsel of Erlinder’s stature would quash it, thereby making a successful prosecution impossible. Such, would of course exonerate her from all the charges, allowing her to register her party FDU-Inkingi in time for the presidential elections in August.

Bring in Plan B

As the government worked around the clock for a way to prevent an embarrassment, Prof Erlinder arrived in Kigali. He was never arrested because technically the leaked list threat was never official – and thus not enough to effect an arrest – especially since the government had been denying knowledge of it. So, Erlinder was left to enter the country and instead another tactic devised. Working with the Bar Association of Rwanda, the government decided this time to delay in the hope of refusing Erlinder permission to practice.

Again, a newspaper campaign was mounted against his visit with emphasis on the fact that he had no legal right to practice in the country despite his interest in defending Ingabire. However, as a law professor and a counsel who had worked at the ICTR in neighbouring Tanzania, this move was destined to fall through. It is then that “on orders from above,” police was instructed to arrest him.

Curse or Blessing

In arresting Prof Erlinder, the Rwandan government may have overlooked one simple fact – the obvious case of the arrest having two sides. Erlinder’s arrest can only be either a blessing or curse for Rwanda.

A source told me today that part of the reason they arrested him was because they hoped the arrest of such a high profile figure would send a signal to all the “genocide deniers” and regime critics that no one will be tolerated and if it means fighting it out in court, the government is prepared “to arrest and shame”.

As stupid as this argument is, it disregards the fact that Prof Erlinder while a “big fish” is no ordinary tilapia or tuna! If the fish paradigm is to be followed, Prof Erlinder might indeed be a whale that will rock the boat and turn the tables up for what has never been heard or seen.

Kigali should know this, especially because the establishment knows and understand the truth. Incarcerating Erlinder will of course arouse more publicity to Kigali to add to the one already aimed at Rwanda over Ingabire’s arrest or the recent bombs and chaos in the run up to the August elections.

Some one will have obviously overlooked this and advised President Paul Kagame to sanction the arrest. Usually, this is what happens in Rwanda when anger overrides sane reasoning.  We have seen this with the head of state kicking off and throwing tantrums in the middles of state addresses or speeches to ambassadors accredited to the country or in a recent example, going against the tenets of justice by attempting contempt of court as in what happened in his last interview to Daily Monitor a week ago.

With a president so gaffe prone that he forgets where he has to put a comma and goes until the last full stop, a case involving Erlinder or one in which he has to take the stand is the last thing Kigali needs.

Sometimes, you get your man or your fish but when the fishing stick it too weak to pull the fish up from the sea, it might be better to just ignore, me thinks

…..now over to you my little monsters!

From Gatsinzi to Kabarebe and now Umuseso, what exactly is Paul Kagame’s ultimate motive?

Anyone who has been following events in Rwanda over the last few weeks will agree with me that it is now clear what President Paul Kagame really wants. A safer Rwanda! A Rwanda, where there is no political upheaval, no opposition politics, no sentimental politicians, no old friends, no dissent and above all, no critical newspapers to report the prevailing ‘peace and tranquillity’.

Presidential elections will go ahead as planned in August and when the dust has settled in September, those still living will witness a sympathetic, loving and caring president, a head of state ready to forgive and forget as he embarks on another seven year term as head of state. How cool is that!.

Gen Marcel Gatsinzi will be hauled to court to answer the genocide charges that continue to linger around his back before being thrown into jail. Lt. Gen Charles Kayonga will be sent to Rwanda’s Pentagon and given a few challenging but less empowering tasks and Gen Kabarebe will most likely retire. Rwandans will have a newly elected leader and The New Times will struggle not to lead with a headline that reads: PK rigs to set new world record!

The High Council of the Press will come up with yet another silly document which Patrice Mulama, posing in front of cameras will read confirming that Umuseso and Umuvugizi newspapers have been reinstated. It will be business as usual and the international community will continue to pour money into Rwanda with the aim of ending poverty and fostering economic development.

Right path? Don’t ask me for I really don’t know. What is clear though is that Paul Kagame, having commanded the forces that he says ended the genocide and helped restore order in chaotic Rwanda, has embarked on a self destructing campaign. He will stop at nothing to make himself clear and louder to all that Rwanda belongs to him and only he knows what is good for the country. He does not even appear bothered by the idea of ruling the country as if it is some family ranch, because according to what he knows, he is popular, charismatic and knows his country’s history better than anyone else. And who are we to challenge him? What exactly do we know? To him we are rejects who should either shut up or put up with whatever nonsense being paraded as long as we rise up at the end of the day to toss to the monsieur- only this time, in English!

Make no mistake the president is in charge. When coup rumours went around a month ago he was very stern as he was precise in his assurances to his audience that Rwanda will never have a coup. “A coup in Rwanda, never…not here,” he said. If that was a statement that lacked the marrow, he made certain a few days ago with impromptu changes in the army. Gen Gatsinzi, the hitherto docile Defence Minister was dropped for a close friend (former friend some will argue) Gen. James Kabarebe.

Lt. Gen Charles Kayonga, who many basing their conviction on local media reports thought was under house arrest, got in to replace Gen. Kabarebe. Some will argue this was a tactical move by the man in charge. Technically demote the popular Gen Kabarebe by making him defence minister and bring Kayonga closer in a more demanding position where he can be checked on and made very busy to even think of a coup.

Am not very knowledgeable about the finer intricacies of army changes but speculation has never been my speciality either. It is very plausible though that it is much easier to look after and maintain an eye on a chief of defence forces than it is to someone who is head of land forces. For the sake of the issue at hand, I will take what the official version is and leave the rest to you my readers. Fortunately, there is even no official version of the changes, just a routine reshuffle.

Political temperatures in Kigali continue to rise. Kagame continues to impress. He seems very popular with the wanainchi or at least looks so whenever he pays them visits. Opposition politics in Rwanda remains a far cry. Those who have dared to challenge the establishment now find themselves in limbo fearing not only for their lives but at the moment for their political parties as well.

Victoire Ingabire has been summoned to the Criminal Investigations Department  more times than she has been allowed to go to church unattended. She is religious but the government would rather she was not. Religious people get to meet others when they go to church. And when you don’t want someone to mix with others for fear that they will talk about their political agenda, you so wish they were pagans.

Frank Habineza, another of the political hopefuls, a former Rwandese Patriotic Front member who broke ranks to form the Democratic Green Party of Rwanda – a party whose registration seems to bother Kagame more than the poverty in the country – is not having it smooth either. He has on several occasions been in the news complaining about scary emails and intimidating phone calls from state agents who continue to threaten him unless he gets out of politics.

Bernard Ntaganda who until a week ago was party chairman for Rwanda’s only vocal political party PS-Imberakuri was successfully ousted by a party wrangle within his own party that many believe was orchestrated by the ruling Rwanda Patriotic Front.

With these under control, in dissaray, under investigation or currently being accused of one or several offences, Kagame will definitely emerge as the one and only presidential candidate come August. He will achieve what he has set out to achieve – rule Rwanda – forever and as long as the elections are held at the hindsight of local and international observers, we will have no legal reason to believe that his victory was manipulated.

The media, which in such an environment would have provided credible evidence as to the real situation on the ground has been manipulated. Those like Umuseso, who have not been so keen at accepting government tokens have now been suspended. The six months suspension effectively rules out Umuseso in the media life of Rwandans until, well, after the elections. If that is not calculated then I stand to be corrected as to whether Kagame is not preparing himself as the father figure and self appointed Lord of Rwanda, he wishes and claims to be.