Kagame, his oath and why he will need more Rick Warrens

By Eleneus Akanga

President Paul Kagame today took the stand to proclaim his oath and willingness to lead Rwanda but if events of yesteryear and weeks gone by are to be taken into perception, he is a man who despite the massive turn out, will need alot of prayers.

Pastor Rick Warren, the American Evangelist and a close friend of Kagame was there to usher in a new era. An era of prayer. Paul Kagame’s supporters want to believe that the whole world is against them just like it supports them. It is a conundrum that Rwanda’s iron man finds himself in. A very powerful source in government said to me this morning that Kagame and almost all his supporters around the world are yet to understand why the coin has suddenly flipped and why the great coverage that their leader has so often enjoyed, seem to be ebbing.

There is a story going on in Rwanda that had it not been for the  leaked UN report alleging complicity by the Rwandan army in crimes against humanity and a possible genocide committed in the Congo, President Kagame would have loved to see his swearing in postponed to Sept 12, given that this was the same time he took his last oath, some seven years ago.

Things have been rushed, and while there may be an issue of a constitutional challenge to the legality of this swearing in ceremony, it is believed Kagame’s friends in the US wanted this done with as soon as. Rick Warren, the maverick pastor from America who Kigali wanted to start a prayer era was also in doubt of attendance if the swearing in had been pushed to Sept 12, as this is a day after the US commemorates the Sept 11 attack on the twin towers – and a commemoration Pr. Warren never wanted to miss.

Rwanda is going through a stern test. For years, President Kagame has enjoyed a soft landing from all corners of the world, including members of the worlds leading media. Today, this view has changed, his style of leadership has come under heavy scrutiny. People are even questioning his integrity. His attempts to silence critics has not paid off  either. Not even his idea to employ the services of leading PR agency has been effective. And when everything is not working, God is the last resort. But to get to God, you need a strong conviction, a conviction that you are innocent, clean and free or at least void of cardinal sins.

The decision by Uganda’s Yoweri Museveni and Tanzania’s Jakaya Kikwete to send delegations to this swearing-in ceremony when they as members of the East African Community to which Rwanda belongs – should have attended, will also raise a few suspicions. Why, some people may ask? Jakaya and Museveni have issues of their own. Presidential elections in Uganda are coming soon and Mr. Museveni has got to be careful who he hops around with. He would have considered this a not so smart move given the flak that Kagame has received in recent months. Who wants to associate themselves with a man whose popularity is dwindling anyway?

But what of Jakaya? Tanzania, remember remains the only country in the region, to have produced a visionary leader -one of Africa’s greatest statesmen, Julius Kambalage Nyerere. There was a time when as Kagame enjoyed a free ride with the world’s media, some sections had started mounting the suggestion that he was a statesman, in the same ranks as Mwalimu Nyerere, Osajefo Kwame Nkrumah and at one time on facebook, Madiba Nelson Mandela. Jakaya is aware of this. He is also aware that the charm himself and his country have previously enjoyed from the US is dwindling and he sees Kagame and Rwanda as his definite substitutes given the latter’s proximity to the Democratic Republic of Congo. He would be playing silly, not to act carefully.

The good news to Rwanda is that at least DRCs Joseph Kabila turned up. Notice too that it was President Kabila who received the most rapturous welcome as he made his way into the stadium. Yes, thunderous if you may.  A perfect statement  to the watching and listening world that Kigali still enjoys great relations with Kinshasha and that the recent reports about a report linking Kigali to atrocities in Congo has not done any damage to this “special relationship”.

Kagame has never shied away from giving a proper fight. Already his government has threatened the UN that they will withdraw troops from any where in the world that they are deployed should the organisation go ahead and publish the leaked report. Blackmail you may say, yes but not to Kagame. Already, the trick is working, the Un has said they wont be publishing the report until after this month to give the countries involved some time to mount a defence? Plausible? Well, somehow logical but why would you want to warn someone about a report that is meant to detail what happened, if you know that what is contained in the report is true? Principle of natural justice perhaps.

Anyway, President Kagame is now a full head of state for another cool seven years. He has much to do and there certainly is much to come. It is good he has the services of Pastor Warren at his disposal. He will need these men of God or “prophets of capitalism” depending on how you want to call them. Rwanda needs prayers, thinks Kagame. Not at all, Rwanda needs reforms claims his critics. Whatever the case, President Kagame now realises that the time is now for a change in the way he has always conducted his business and he will need some deeper reforms if he is to regain the good man status that he for so many years enjoyed.

The limits of free speech in Rwanda

Stephen Kinzer

The Guardian

Sixteen years after genocide, Rwanda is facing a new test. President Paul Kagame, who is seeking re-election, is widely admired abroad. Among his fans are some of the world’s most famous do-gooders, from Bill Clinton and Tony Blair to Rev Rick Warren and Dr Paul Farmer. His enemies hope to use this election campaign to tarnish his image and show these admirers that he is no democrat.

Rwanda is more stable and prosperous than many would have predicted following the 1994 genocide. The reconciliation process has been at least partly successful. Yet beneath the surface, Rwandan society remains volatile. Hatreds are unexpressed, but no one believes they are gone.

Kagame’s government has passed laws against disseminating “genocide ideology”, meaning views that could inflame communal hatreds. People are supposed to describe themselves only as Rwandan, never as Hutu or Tutsi. Kagame claims these laws are necessary to keep Rwanda back from the abyss of violence. If he enforces them during the political campaign, though, critics will accuse him of suppressing free speech.

Last month, a Rwandan-born businesswoman who has spent more than a decade in the Netherlands, Victoire Ingabire, arrived in Rwanda and announced that she was a candidate for president. Her party is based abroad and not recognised in Rwanda. According to a UN report (in French), she is supported by leaders of the principal Hutu insurgent group, which is among factions terrorising the eastern Congo.

Ingabire’s first statements after landing in Rwanda were thinly veiled appeals for Hutu solidarity. “There is no shame in saying I am Hutu or am Tutsi; there’s nothing wrong with that,” she told one interviewer.

Appealing to ethic identity this way is illegal. The official press launched a sharp campaign against Ingabire, and her campaign group has been attacked at least once. She has been interrogated by police and warned that she will be arrested if she continues preaching “genocide ideology”. Amnesty International responded by accusing the government of “intimidation and harassment”.

Nonsense, replies President Kagame. He believes western human rights activists underestimate the prospects for a new outbreak of ethnic violence in Rwanda, as well as the danger of allowing ethnically charged speech. “We’ve lived this life,” he said angrily at a news conference. “We’ve lived the consequences. So we understand it better than anyone from anywhere else.”

Kagame won the last presidential election, in 2003, with a reported 95% of the vote. Critics complained that the campaign was unfair, but Kagame emerged relatively unscathed because few outsiders were paying attention.

Seven years later, Rwanda is in the midst of a promising transformation and Kagame is a darling of the global development community. His enemies know they cannot defeat him in this election; he is the strongman and will do whatever is necessary to win. Their strategy is to bait him into taking actions – like arresting a rival candidate – that would make him look bad abroad and thereby weaken his regime.

Many people in developed countries look suspiciously, as they should, on leaders who impose restrictions on free speech. Even in the US, though, it is illegal to cry “fire!” in a crowded theatre. That is what Rwandan leaders accuse the foreign-based opposition of doing – fanning hatreds that could explode into another genocide. The opposition, in reply, insists it is merely speaking truths Kagame does not wish to hear.

Kagame, who was called the “Napoleon of Africa” during his march to power in the early 1990s, is acknowledged to have great military skills. His political skills are less tested. Between now and the election on 9 August, he must navigate a delicate course that will assure him three things: re-election, national stability and minimum damage to his reputation. This is to be his last campaign, since the Rwandan constitution limits presidents to two seven-year terms. How he conducts it will shape both his legacy and Rwanda’s future.